$BTC 📌 Key Observations
💰 Price: $105,543.14 (+0.22%) — trading near top of 24h range ($104,300–$105,680)
📊 Volume: $670.14M (24h) — moderate, lacks breakout conviction
📉 RSI: 43.41 — neutral, no strong directional signal
🧨 MACD: Bearish divergence (DIF 751.81 < DEA 1,108.63, Histogram -356.82)
⚠️ Critical: Price testing resistance but below key EMAs (7 & 25)
📈 Key Metrics
Current Price: $105,543.14
EMAs:
EMA(7): $106,269.05
EMA(25): $105,660.98
EMA(99): $98,530.83
RSI(6): 43.41
MACD:
DIF: 751.81
DEA: 1,108.63
Histogram: -356.82 🟥
24h Volume: $670.14M USDT 📉
🧠 Technical Analysis
🚧 Resistance Cluster:
Price compressed between $105,660 (EMA 25) and $105,680 (24h high)
Weak breakout structure
📉 EMA Bear Stack:
Price below EMA(7) & EMA(25) → short-term bearish structure
EMA(7) < EMA(25) → momentum declining
📉 MACD Deterioration:
Histogram -356.82 → accelerating bearish momentum
DIF < DEA = Bearish cross active
🔇 Volume:
No surge in breakout zone = weak buyer pressure
🔮 Price Prediction
🕛 Next 12–24h Forecast:
🔻 Base Case (70%): Rejection at $105,660 → drop to $105,000 → $104,300
🟢 Bull Case (30%): Breakout above $105,680 → push to $106,269 (EMA 7)
🗓️ 3-Day Outlook:
🔻 Close < $104,300 = deeper pullback to $103,779 → $100,372
🔼 Recovery > $106,269 needed for bullish reversal
📌 Trade Plan
⚡ Intraday Trades (Next 4–6h)
🟥 Short at Resistance
Entry: $105,600–$105,650 (EMA 25 zone)
Target: $105,000 → $104,500
SL: $105,750
Trigger: 15m bearish engulfing 🕯️
🎭 Breakout Fade
Entry: $105,700
Target: $105,200 → $104,800
SL: $105,850
Trigger: Weak volume breakout (<$50M)
🧲 Swing Trades
📉 Breakdown Short
Entry: $104,250
Target: $103,779 → $102,000
SL: $104,500
Confirm: RSI < 40
📈 EMA Rebound Long
Entry: $103,800
Target: $105,000 → $105,660
SL: $103,600
Trigger: 4H bullish hammer + MACD histogram improvement
⚙️ Risk Parameters
💼 Position Size: ≤1.5% of capital
🎯 Take Profit:
Shorts: 50% at $105,000, 50% at $104,500
Longs: 50% at $104,800, 50% at $105,500
🛑 Stop Loss: Max 0.5% account risk
🚨 Critical Triggers
- 🔴 BEARISH CONFIRMATION: ! Rejection at $105,660 (EMA 25) ! RSI < 40 ! 4h close < $104,300 ! Volume spike on breakdown + 🟢 BULLISH REVERSAL: ! Close > $106,269 (EMA 7) ! MACD histogram > -200 ! RSI > 50 + rising volume ! Bullish EMA crossover (EMA 7 > EMA 25)
🧾 Summary
BTC/USDT is at a critical resistance zone 🧱
🔺 Make-or-Break: $105,660 – $105,680
🔻 Support Below: $104,300 → $103,779
Top Trades:
✂️ Short at $105,630 (SL: $105,750)
⚠️ Breakdown short below $104,250
💚 EMA bounce long near $103,800 only with confirmation
📌 Take 50% profit at $105,000 (for shorts). Watch $104,300–$104,500 for fakeouts or liquidity sweeps.
⚠️ Note: EMA(7) < EMA(25) = dominant bearish pressure. MACD histogram (-356) = strongest sell momentum recently.
take Trade From here 👉
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